Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise
Identifieur interne : 002C56 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002C55; suivant : 002C57Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise
Auteurs : Gabriela Mendoza-González [Mexique] ; M. Luisa Martínez [Mexique] ; Octavio R. Rojas-Soto [Mexique] ; Gabriela Vázquez [Mexique] ; Juan B. Gallego-Fernández [Espagne]Source :
- Global Change Biology [ 1354-1013 ] ; 2013-08.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Academic press, Acta mexicana, Algorithm, Annual precipitation, Annual temperature, Anthropogenic pressure, Atlantic coast, Best subset, Bioclimatic, Bioclimatic variables, Biodiversity, Biogeography, Biological diversity, Biological systems, Biotic variables, Cakile, Cakile edentula, Cambridge university press, Canadian journal, Canavalia, Carretera antigua, Castillo, Central gulf, Chamaecrista, Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Climate change, Climate variation, Climatic, Climatic niches, Coastal, Coastal areas, Coastal dune environment, Coastal dune landscapes, Coastal dune plants, Coastal dune species, Coastal dune vegetation, Coastal dunes, Coastal habitats, Coastal provinces, Coastal research, Coastal sand dunes, Coastal species, Coastal squeeze, Coastal vegetation, Coldest month temperature, Coldest quarter, Coral reefs, Distribution pattern, Distribution range, Driest quarter, Driest quarter precipitation, Dunas costeras, Dune, Dune plants, Dune species, Eastern coast, Ecological, Ecological economics, Ecological modeling, Ecological modelling, Ecological niche, Ecological niche modeling, Ecology, Ecosystem, Ecosystem alteration, Ecosystem services, Emissions scenarios, Environmental systems research institute, Espejel, Feagin, Fourth assessment report, Fundamental niche, Garp, Genetic algorithm, Geographic distribution, Geographic distributions, Geographical distribution, Glendale beach, Global, Global change biology, Global ecology, Greaver, Greaver sternberg, Hesp, Human infrastructure, Intergovernmental panel, International journal, Invasive species, Ipcc, Ipomoea, John wiley sons, Level rise, Local endemics, Locality records, Mart, Maxent, Maximum entropy modeling, Metzing gerlach, Mexican caribbean, Modeling, Modeling exercise, National academy, Negative impact, Niche, Ocean water, Other regions, Other studies, Palafoxia, Palafoxia lindenii, Physical science basis, Plant ecology, Plant migration, Plant species, Plant species distribution, Potential changes, Potential distribution, Potential impact, Precipitation, Precipitation precipitation, Primary succession, Salt marshes, Salt water intrusion, Sand deposition, Sand dunes, Scenario, Shoreline erosion, Software design, Southern veracruz, Special report, Species distribution, Species distribution modeling, Sternberg, Storm surges, Study area, Substrate type, Temperature seasonality, Testing records, Tourism infrastructure, Tournefortia, Vegetation, Vegetation science, Veracruz, Warmest, Warmest month, Warmest quarter, Warmest quarter precipitation, Western australia, Wettest, Wettest month precipitation, Wettest quarter, Wettest quarter precipitation, Yearly temperature, Yucatan, Yucatan peninsula.
- Teeft :
- Academic press, Acta mexicana, Algorithm, Annual precipitation, Annual temperature, Anthropogenic pressure, Atlantic coast, Best subset, Bioclimatic, Bioclimatic variables, Biodiversity, Biogeography, Biological diversity, Biological systems, Biotic variables, Cakile, Cakile edentula, Cambridge university press, Canadian journal, Canavalia, Carretera antigua, Castillo, Central gulf, Chamaecrista, Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Climate change, Climate variation, Climatic, Climatic niches, Coastal, Coastal areas, Coastal dune environment, Coastal dune landscapes, Coastal dune plants, Coastal dune species, Coastal dune vegetation, Coastal dunes, Coastal habitats, Coastal provinces, Coastal research, Coastal sand dunes, Coastal species, Coastal squeeze, Coastal vegetation, Coldest month temperature, Coldest quarter, Coral reefs, Distribution pattern, Distribution range, Driest quarter, Driest quarter precipitation, Dunas costeras, Dune, Dune plants, Dune species, Eastern coast, Ecological, Ecological economics, Ecological modeling, Ecological modelling, Ecological niche, Ecological niche modeling, Ecology, Ecosystem, Ecosystem alteration, Ecosystem services, Emissions scenarios, Environmental systems research institute, Espejel, Feagin, Fourth assessment report, Fundamental niche, Garp, Genetic algorithm, Geographic distribution, Geographic distributions, Geographical distribution, Glendale beach, Global, Global change biology, Global ecology, Greaver, Greaver sternberg, Hesp, Human infrastructure, Intergovernmental panel, International journal, Invasive species, Ipcc, Ipomoea, John wiley sons, Level rise, Local endemics, Locality records, Mart, Maxent, Maximum entropy modeling, Metzing gerlach, Mexican caribbean, Modeling, Modeling exercise, National academy, Negative impact, Niche, Ocean water, Other regions, Other studies, Palafoxia, Palafoxia lindenii, Physical science basis, Plant ecology, Plant migration, Plant species, Plant species distribution, Potential changes, Potential distribution, Potential impact, Precipitation, Precipitation precipitation, Primary succession, Salt marshes, Salt water intrusion, Sand deposition, Sand dunes, Scenario, Shoreline erosion, Software design, Southern veracruz, Special report, Species distribution, Species distribution modeling, Sternberg, Storm surges, Study area, Substrate type, Temperature seasonality, Testing records, Tourism infrastructure, Tournefortia, Vegetation, Vegetation science, Veracruz, Warmest, Warmest month, Warmest quarter, Warmest quarter precipitation, Western australia, Wettest, Wettest month precipitation, Wettest quarter, Wettest quarter precipitation, Yearly temperature, Yucatan, Yucatan peninsula.
Abstract
Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential ‘new shoreline’ will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a ‘coastal squeeze’ of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12236
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<term>Salt marshes</term>
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<term>Sand dunes</term>
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<term>Warmest quarter</term>
<term>Warmest quarter precipitation</term>
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<term>Wettest</term>
<term>Wettest month precipitation</term>
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<front><div type="abstract">Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential ‘new shoreline’ will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a ‘coastal squeeze’ of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.</div>
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<name sortKey="Martinez, M Luisa" sort="Martinez, M Luisa" uniqKey="Martinez M" first="M. Luisa" last="Martínez">M. Luisa Martínez</name>
<name sortKey="Rojas Oto, Octavio R" sort="Rojas Oto, Octavio R" uniqKey="Rojas Oto O" first="Octavio R." last="Rojas-Soto">Octavio R. Rojas-Soto</name>
<name sortKey="Vazquez, Gabriela" sort="Vazquez, Gabriela" uniqKey="Vazquez G" first="Gabriela" last="Vázquez">Gabriela Vázquez</name>
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<country name="Espagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Gallego Ernandez, Juan B" sort="Gallego Ernandez, Juan B" uniqKey="Gallego Ernandez J" first="Juan B." last="Gallego-Fernández">Juan B. Gallego-Fernández</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
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